[jfman]

That’s the thing though - it’s not like it’s going to give us a sign saying it’s coming in two weeks and make some plans.

Boris claiming everything will be back to normal by Christmas (relatively) begs the question what changes between now and then? Does test, trace, isolate have the capacity to quickly identify cases and their close contacts?

If it does not and people behave “relatively” normal then in the absence of divine intervention it’d take a second wave a small number of weeks to escalate out of control from “everything is fine” - let’s call that January 31 and “lockdown” on March 23.

The push to get people back into offices, back onto public transport and back into pubs and restaurants all the while schools are in easily has the potential for the 700 cases a day England are reporting to become a few thousand per day in the pre-symptomatic phase. Where’s the mitigation?