Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
You are assuming that a mutation makes the virus worse.
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I'm not necessarily saying it will make the virus worse, although of course, it could do. What I was getting at was that it may make any vaccine ineffective, and so the prospect of future lockdowns would go on and on.
---------- Post added at 09:32 ---------- Previous post was at 09:31 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
What do you base this on, please?
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Science.
---------- Post added at 09:37 ---------- Previous post was at 09:32 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
It's far from fairlytale evidence pip. It stands to reason - countries that can operate their economies normally will get close to pre-Covid levels, quicker.
It's taken 4-5 months to get to antibody levels about 14% in the population. Getting to herd immunity levels o 60-80% means managing the flow for something in the region of 20 months. 20 months of less people going out, less tourism, more working from home - all of which increases unemployment from reduced demand in the economy.
The fairytale is the idea we ease restrictions and everything returns no normal. It's flawed classical economics - "if you build it they will come". Demand needs to be stimulated from somewhere - during a pandemic the question is where from?
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No, you are fixated on the need for a lockdown. This is indeed wrecking economies.
A much more sensible approach is to protect the vulnerable and at risk groups, and let the virus run free through the rest of the population. That's what we should have done in the first place, and I think with hindsight, politicians have started to grasp this - the sensible, thinking ones, that is.
---------- Post added at 09:40 ---------- Previous post was at 09:37 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by papa smurf
When the furlough scheme ends the crap will hit the fan, i see mass unemployment for the foreseeable future  |
It will. It is hard to believe that there are people out there wanting to continue the lockdown for weeks on end because it gets them off work with the money still coming in. They don't seem to be giving any thought to whether they will still have a job if this continues.
---------- Post added at 09:43 ---------- Previous post was at 09:40 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
And that's the thing - Government pays either way. Ending furlough isn't a magic bullet for the public purse.
It's a choice between paying more, for a shorter period of time and getting the virus under control. Or paying out less over a longer period of time with a later and slower economic recovery as by then the factors causing the economic downturn become entrenched.
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That balance sheet of yours appears to be most unbalanced! Thank God you are not our Chancellor of the Exchequer!
