Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking
There's no simple answer to any of this. That is despite the many studies of the effect of school closures and the 151 page UK government summary report from May 2014. That report included references to 171 studies.
A key factor is, how well have people been behaving during the lockdown? If the chaining(passing from one person to another and so on) of infections has been properly broken, there should be fewer people out there infected. If people have been regularly meeting up with random people during a lockdown, then the potential is there to resurface when a lockdown is eased(eg South Korea).
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There is a simple answer. Until it’s safe to ease lockdown measures we should not be doing so. That depends on testing, tracing and isolating. Internationally recognised best practice we ignored in February with a complacent approach and similarly I see no evidence that we are well placed to do it now.
A second wave is inevitable now at massive human and economic cost.