Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth
How do they work out the current 'R' figure?
and how accurate is it?
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The simplest way is you put the total infections data you've been given by the NHS into a graph and you fit an exponential function to it, the best fitting R number is then reported to be R.
The accuracy is determined by the amount of data you have (which unfortunately means you are least accurate at the beginning of the pandemic and most accurate after it's all over)
Now of course you say, what if the NHS data is incomplete. Well that is a major issue.
Also remember R is just a sort of average and it is vulnerable to various conditions at the time. Social distancing and lockdown pushes R down so it's entirely possible different countries have different Rs for the same virus.