Thread: Coronavirus (OLD)
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Old 12-05-2020, 11:01   #3229
OLD BOY
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth View Post
But would it? any R value other than zero implies a degree of non-lock down.

Bring in well observed "stay alert" mitigations, then lock down is not really necessary. "Well observed" is the buggeration factor.
To be honest, I have huge reservations about this. As I have said all along, lift the lockdown and we start all over again, as South Korea, Germany and China are finding out now.

As soon as the measures are even relaxed a little (by allowing people back to work) you increase the rate of infection, particularly amongst those on long commutes.

We have already seen how just one person coming into this country with the infection led to an exponential spread because the damned thing is so infectious. What makes anyone think we can get to any semblance of normality against something like this?

I admire the government for trying, I really do, but in the end, this problem will continue until we find and distribute a vaccine or it dies off by itself. Not a nice prospect.

---------- Post added at 11:01 ---------- Previous post was at 10:55 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman View Post
How many times must we go round in circles.

The role of Government and Central Banks is to support the economy. It can easily do this because government budgets do not operate like household budgets.

The economy tanks either way - the global recession was underway far before lockdown. Death, sick leave and self isolation aren’t good for consumer confidence.

The economic crisis is twinned with the health crisis. If you can’t solve the former without solving the latter, regardless of how many deaths you wish to create by not managing the health emergency the fall in the FTSE is here for a while, as are the supply and demand side shocks that have brought forward a recession that was in the cards anyway.

Protect people’s jobs and incomes for the duration and the economy comes out healthier in the end.
I wish I could believe that, jfman. If that were true, we would not have needed the austerity measures.

While I don't like the prospect of so many deaths being caused by this virus, I think there is some inevitability about it given that there is no real way to prevent them that makes any sense. Crashing the economy to achieve the impossible is madness, to my mind.
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