View Single Post
Old 11-05-2020, 22:08   #3219
jfman
Architect of Ideas
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 11,146
jfman has a nice shiny star
jfman has a nice shiny star
Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth View Post
Surely to run its course, the R value needs to be 0.5 or less for whatever time period - prolly very long.
If there’s no vaccine found then maintaining the R ratio below but near 1 would achieve so called herd immunity in a short amount of time if the claim at the vast majority of people show no symptoms at all is true.

If you had R at 0.5 and maintained that the infection rate would reduce to zero before it hit 80% of the population. Say there’s a million people with it currently - they’d infect half a million - then quarter of a million - 125k - 64k - and so forth until there’s no infections in the population. However maintaining R at 0.5 would be challenging without considerable restrictions - greater than those proposed in England for the next few weeks.
jfman is offline