Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
Agreed. It's irresponsible to post such misinformation on a public forum on such an important matter.
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Perhapsyou would like to revise your thinking. I remember distinctly that at the early government briefings, we were told that the idea was to reduce the peak into a plateau, and that there could be multiple smaller peaks or plateaux thereafter.
I have said before that this virus is highly infectious, and you can see how fast it spread from just one person bringing it into the UK. Right now, we have a lot of people infected, so you need to ask yourself why the infection will not gather pace again once restrictions are eased or lifted.
We cannot have a lockdown in place forever. That is why the virus will pep up again, either pretty quickly, or maybe when we are out of the summer months.
As you want a link, well here's one. It wasn't hard to find,
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...umn-ministers/
Government advisers have warned ministers that a tighter lockdown will lead to a second outbreak of coronavirus later this year.
Putting in place "very stringent" measures of the sort seen in Hong Kong and China could just delay the peak until after the restrictions were lifted, potentially into the autumn, official modelling found.
It comes amid repeated warnings from ministers that the Government will tighten social distancing measures, including a ban on exercising outdoors, if it is shown that people are not complying with the rules.
Senior police officers have warned that any further restrictions would be difficult to enforce.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) report on the "potential impact of behavioural and social intervention" casts doubt on whether a tighter lockdown would be effective. It shows that the largest number of deaths would occur if there was no intervention, which in the UK was estimated at around 500,000.
If some measures were implemented to "moderately reduce transmission", which could include people changing their behaviour without intervention, then the deaths would have reduced slightly and the peak delayed, the summary, presented to the Government last month, concluded.
However, a similarly high peak would be seen later in the year if "very stringent behavioural and social interventions" were put into effect, the scientists predicted.
Whilst flattening the cases in the short term, "when lifted, a large epidemic would likely follow". Depending how long they were in place, this could peak in the autumn, ministers were told.
The current strategy of "behavioural and social interventions which further reduce transmission" were most likely to flatten the curve with a much lower peak in the early summer.
Imposing restrictions such as those in Wuhan, which saw people confined to their homes, and then rapidly lifting them "may result in a subsequent second larger peak", the experts said.