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Originally Posted by OLD BOY
Herd immunity is almost certainly going to work, and that is what we rely on with all existing vaccination programmes. However, the longer this disease is out there, the more likelihood of a major mutation which will put us back to square one.
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Herd immunity is unlikely to completely kill off the virus unless it was achieved by a very aggressive vaccine program. The natural herd immunity approach would have stopped it being able to spread effectively but given the world-wide spread of this virus outright stopping it is unlikely.
It's also unlikely the virus would ever have a likelihood of a '
major mutation which will put us back to square one.' It could mutate enough that it breaks though existing antibody responses but your immune system can adapt to variants of a disease.
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However, what nobody seems to be coming to terms with is that lockdowns in themselves don't prevent deaths, they delay them.
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Limiting the spread of the virus avoids overwhelming the NHS allowing the people that do catch it the ability to get medical intervention. If everyone got it at once people would die simply as a result of lack of care.
The longer we delay that spread the better the chances of more effective treatment courses being found as well. You want to catch this a year from now rather than now if given the choice. Chances are we'll be better at this, saving more lives, the more we learn.