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Originally Posted by OLD BOY
Herd immunity is almost certainly going to work, and that is what we rely on with all existing vaccination programmes. However, the longer this disease is out there, the more likelihood of a major mutation which will put us back to square one.
We are fighting against nature here and on this one, nature is winning. Of course I understand that the lockdown was designed to relieve pressure on the NHS. I've acknowledged that throughout. However, what nobody seems to be coming to terms with is that lockdowns in themselves don't prevent deaths, they delay them. Germany has just relaxed its lockdown, and guess what? Infection rates are on the rise again. This will keep happening until either we find a vaccine that works and distribute it to everyone or herd immunity is achieved over this elongated period we are now looking at.
It is interesting that you say there is no guarantee that herd immunity will work, and so completely dismiss it. Then in the next sentence, you say there is no guarantee that a vaccine will work, then you embrace it as a solution.
I know that this is not easy, and everyone wants to do something, even if it won't work. Our choice really is whether to stop the lockdowns, let the virus spread while protecting vulnerable people OR have lockdown after lockdown (or one continuous lockdown) until a vaccine becomes available and distributed. That could be one or two years away.
Sooner or later, the government has a tough decision to make, but if they leave it too long, the public will make it for them. The lockdown cannot last too much longer now.
As for having multiple lockdowns ahead, forget it. There is no way we can keep paying people from our rapidly depleting government funds. Not only that, but businesses will start to fail in ever increasing numbers as the weeks go by, so we will end up with mass unemployment and no ability to pay dole money. Just think it through - we cannot let this go on and on.
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Show me the evidence that you have that says herd immunity is going to work
I think we all agree that lockdowns don't prevent death, but they ensure that there are lower deaths over a given time period compared to if we let the virus continue unabated. If you actually seriously think that we would have the same tally of deaths lockdown vs normality you're seriously seriously wrong.
I don't embrace either as a 100% solution YET, they both have chances of success or failure. But a vaccine combined with lockdown(s) is our best way of minimising deaths.
How do you protect the vulnerable when some of those included are ones that you professed won't stick to the rules of a lockdown?
Multiple lockdowns will happen, just look at Germany. A country whose R0 number has increased since they eased. The government are preparing for a 2nd lockdown should the RO continue to increase. This is the Germany BTW that managed their outbreak far far better than we did.
Would you rather be dead? Or alive but worse of financially?
Oh, btw from various news snippets this morning it looks like the lockdown will continue until June with only minimal changes.
If you think that life is going to go back to normal in the next 12-24 months then you're off your rocker.