Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees
To take your points in order.
1) Again, There is NO guarantee whatsoever that herd immunity will work. Nor is there a guarantee that a vaccine will work. What you have failed to understand yet again is that the lockdowns are designed to limit the pressure on services and to limit the deaths sustained over a period of time. I'll leave the maths here, there's really no point trying to keep explaining it. Most others seem to understand.
2) The virus has already mutated. Chinese scientists identified 33 strains of it. Link to this is here
3) This isn't the last lockdown, My guess is we're in for quite a few over the next twelve months. Until such time as an effective vaccine or if we can prove that herd immunity will work then life as we know will considerably change people will simply just have to accept it and get used to it or face the criminal/medical consequences.
If neither herd or vaccine are achievable, then all bets are off & EVEN IF one of those two methods prove successful then life as we know it will change irretrievably in many aspects.
---------- Post added at 11:09 ---------- Previous post was at 11:07 ----------
Great, just point us to the evidence that herd immunity works for this virus?
Congrats  on the vaccine call ! |
Herd immunity is almost certainly going to work, and that is what we rely on with all existing vaccination programmes. However, the longer this disease is out there, the more likelihood of a major mutation which will put us back to square one.
We are fighting against nature here and on this one, nature is winning. Of course I understand that the lockdown was designed to relieve pressure on the NHS. I've acknowledged that throughout. However, what nobody seems to be coming to terms with is that lockdowns in themselves don't prevent deaths, they delay them. Germany has just relaxed its lockdown, and guess what? Infection rates are on the rise again. This will keep happening until either we find a vaccine that works and distribute it to everyone or herd immunity is achieved over this elongated period we are now looking at.
It is interesting that you say there is no guarantee that herd immunity will work, and so completely dismiss it. Then in the next sentence, you say there is no guarantee that a vaccine will work, then you embrace it as a solution.
I know that this is not easy, and everyone wants to do something, even if it won't work. Our choice really is whether to stop the lockdowns, let the virus spread while protecting vulnerable people OR have lockdown after lockdown (or one continuous lockdown) until a vaccine becomes available and distributed. That could be one or two years away.
Sooner or later, the government has a tough decision to make, but if they leave it too long, the public will make it for them. The lockdown cannot last too much longer now.
As for having multiple lockdowns ahead, forget it. There is no way we can keep paying people from our rapidly depleting government funds. Not only that, but businesses will start to fail in ever increasing numbers as the weeks go by, so we will end up with mass unemployment and no ability to pay dole money. Just think it through - we cannot let this go on and on.