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Originally Posted by jfman
I’m not sure how your point contradicts mine. There’s no reason to expect any different if the economy just opened up with no restrictions tomorrow.
Anyway seeing as I’m banned from the Coronavirus thread for having an opposite opinion to Paul, despite being persistently baited my multiple right wing trolls, there’s no point continuing discussion here.
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The 250,000 was if there was no lockdown or social distancing of everybody. That hasn't happened, therefore the first scenario no longer applies.
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In the second scenario, more intensive interventions could interrupt transmission and reduce case numbers to low levels. However, once these interventions are relaxed, case numbers are predicted to rise. This gives rise to lower case numbers, but the risk of a later epidemic in the winter months unless the interventions can be sustained.
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