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Originally Posted by jfman
On that basis it could be much higher?
That’s equally as speculative as any suggestion it could be lower. I suppose 50,000 have died since then when ‘credible’ Government estimates were we could have kept the deaths below 20,000.
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Have you actually read the report?
The 250,000 was without lockdown and where social distancing was only for those over 70.
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The report details that for the first scenario (slowing the spread), the optimal policy would combine home isolation of cases, home quarantine and social distancing of those over 70 years. This could reduce the peak healthcare demand by two-thirds and reduce deaths by half. However, the resulting epidemic would still likely result in an estimated 250,000 deaths and therefore overwhelm the health system (most notably intensive care units).
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