[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

You're a right one to talk about 'patronising armchair analysis', jfman. What you have just described is not lockdown - it's social distancing, which is indeed the government's approach.

However, I will be most interested to know how that will work in practice with our overcrowded public transport systems.

You are stuck with the idea that we only have three options. Lockdown, social distancing, or normal. The reality is various sectors of the economy, indeed even various regions and the devolved administrations, could and indeed should exercise levers to a varying degree for some time.

18 months is how long it may take to get a vaccine. If you cannot imagine a lockdown until then, what exactly will be different before that time that allows it to be ended?

Some will point out that testing is the answer, but none of them are reliable. They may give a false sense of security, but they are not a solution.

Testing works elsewhere. While it cannot on its own remove the threat of Coronavirus it mitigates risk. Similar to airport screening. Combined with social distancing you further reduce the risk to levels we can support.

As I said before, social distancing is not practical. I mentioned public transport, which is obvious, but what about hairdressers, dentists and all those other workers who have no choice but to get close to their customers? Are we going to stop them working for 18 months?

Potentially yes if it cannot be made safe for them to do so. Some areas of the economy may have to work with PPE that ordinarily wouldn't. Others might only be able to work if regular testing is in place to reduce the risk.

What these measures look like are currently being scoped out at the highest levels of Government.

Public transport the quick win is for anyone who can work from home to continue to do so - a situation I expect for many more months to come.

We'd better hope that the theory I mentioned some posts back that the virus will die out naturally (as did previous coronaviruses) is correct, because that is the best solution of all, but it is out of our hands.

I think if you stop being hysterical acting like a slump in GDP is the apocalypse then we might get more rational, and considered, outcomes in these discussions.