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Originally Posted by pip08456
It certainly is and puts forward a lot of what OB has said.
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That’s a single scientific fact answering a direct question asked. I don’t see where he advocates carelessly opening up the economy and tens of (hundreds of?) thousands of excess deaths.
The UK has to acknowledge that, for various reasons, Germany have controlled this better and are well placed to continue to do so. The UK has 10% of the recorded global deaths, and even then we are calling 40,000 the reduced figure of 20,000.
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Q: How close we are to achieving herd immunity?
A: To achieve herd immunity we need 60-70% of the population to carry antibodies to the virus. The results of antibody tests suggest that in Europe and the US, in general, we are in the low single digits, but the tests are not reliable – all of them have problems with false positives – and herd immunity is also not the whole story. It assumes complete mixing of the population, but there are reasons – in part to do with the social networks people form – why the whole population may not be available for infection at any given time. Networks shift, and new people are exposed to the virus. Such effects can drive waves of infection. Another factor that could impact herd immunity is whether other coronaviruses – those that cause the common cold, for example – offer protection to this one. We don’t know, but it’s possible.
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