Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
It’s a classic example of research by scientists who are great with statistics but don’t have much clue how humans (and especially children) actually behave.
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You might want to check the original paper that I linked up the page a bit. The work he published cites back to previous studies around the SARS outbreak and previous influenza outbreaks which showed little transmission in children and suggested that the effect of closing schools in isolation is limited.
Of course, school are never closed in isolation and one big side effect of closing schools is that it forced a significant part of the population to work from home or not work at all to look after their children. This has great social distancing impact but also an economic impact as, in the UK, 16% of the workforce are primary caregivers of children of school age.
Taiwan learned from SARS in 2003 and implemented social distancing in schools during the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak with some success and might provide a model for future reopening. Influenza is somewhat different to Coronavirus outbreaks as it spreads rapidly through children.
Russell Viners study is important as we go forward as it helps define the path back to normality. We will reopen schools, we will go back to work. The big questions are how and when - the famous 'exit strategy'