[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

Some interesting analysis by the Economist (of all places!) looking at the excess deaths in Spain and Italy against the long term trend of expected deaths. These are far in excess of the given Coronavirus figures (and obviously it captures deaths where they don’t have it, for example a car crash could have fatalities as a result of no ICU beds or where treatment isn’t available for usually treatable conditions).

However, what would be interesting to see is if someone followed the trends after Coronavirus - would the “they would probably have died anyway/underlying health condition” line stack up in which case we would see a decrease in deaths for around 12 months. Or would it simply be a line that politicians have trotted out that became disproven over time by statistics.

A good question. Is it possible, though, that the politicians are being more careful this time with their "follow the science" mantra, leaving the statistics to the professionals? Vide the daily briefings.