[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

I can’t exaggerate something that isn’t quantifiable.



Again, completely unquantifiable.



Indeed, one completely unquantifiable at this stage. I note you are having a separate debate all by yourself on “leaving the EU”. That’s done, gone.

What I do know is that poor planning results in poor outcomes in public policy and greater uncertainty destabilises the markets. Indeed, one doesn’t have to look far to see how easily markets can be spooked.



Without knowing how much tariffs are, the amounts of goods/services consumed in each direction again this is entirely unquantifiable.

Considering the supply and demand side shocks to the global economy resulting from Coronavirus what trade will look like next year is completely uncertain.

The stock market, and the pound, both reacted positively to Johnson being elected on the promise of delivering a deal that would pass Parliament, ending uncertainty, avoiding a cliff edge and engaging seriously but firmly with the EU on a future trading arrangement.

If a deal is reached all to the good, if not there’s no point walking away at an entirely arbitrary date drawn up in different economic circumstances if there’s a realistic prospect of a deal by the end of 2021. As I said before, it gives businesses time and Government time to prepare policies for fisheries and agricultural sectors.

If there’s any rules we don’t like repeal them on 2nd January 2022 - literally nothing lost as a result.

You noted OB's "inability to answer the rest" of your post. So please let me fill that gap in respect of what I've highlighted.

First, I cannot argue with your assertions of unquantifiablility So let's leave that.

I don't think the walk-away date is arbitrary. It's been chosen by the Guvmin to put pressure on the EU precisely because they don't think there's a prospect of a full deal by the end of 2020. It sends a message to the EU that either they want a deal, so get down to it, or we trade on the "Australia" basis. It's far from arbitrary but quite deliberate.

True, the new Coronavirus circumstances allow for better preparation time. But here, the Guvmin has to decide whether the extra time will result in a decent deal or keeping the pressure up will focus the EU mind. I have a feeling, however, that the EU won't come to a sensible agreement under any circumstances and that our best chance is to maintain pressure.