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**Hugh** · 29-03-2020, 16:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I don't buy that, spiderplant. I appreciate that we are still learning about this virus, but did you see that the results of a recent epidemiological model developed by researchers at Oxford University suggested that half the population of the UK may already have been infected by the coronavirus? That being the case, we are fast approaching herd immunity and we may well reach the peak infection rate very soon.

When all is said and done, my guess is that the most significant factor about Covid 19 will be acknowledged to be the very fast infection rate, not the mortality rate (which is still a lot less than we can expect in a year with 'normal' flu). It is the high number of deaths within so few weeks that is causing exceptional demand on health services around the world that is significant.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/e...d-to-covid-19/

Quote:

Prof Jonathan Ball, Professor of Molecular Virology, University of Nottingham, said:

“This is interesting work, but is hampered by the same issues that impacts on all epidemiological models – they rely on assumptions that at the moment are based on only a paucity of scientific fact about how thus virus transmits.

“The reliable way to answer the really important question about levels of exposure is to carry out serology-based studies – Detecting the presence of specific novel coronavirus antibodies in the wider population will give us the real answer.

“This is key data as it tells us about the rates or serious disease and death, and will also give an accurate idea of future waves of infection.”

Quote:

Dr Simon Gubbins, Group Leader – Transmission Biology, The Pirbright Institute, said:

Is this good quality research?

“Yes.

Does it show that over half the UK population has been infected with COVID-19?

“No. What it shows is there are scenarios consistent with the available data in which a high proportion of the population (68%) could have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by 19 March. However, the estimates for proportion of the population infected depends on the assumptions made about proportion of the population at risk of severe disease, which is unknown. The high level of infection is predicted only if this proportion at risk is small (0.1%). If the proportion at risk is 1% (another scenario consistent with the data), the proportion infected by 19 March would be much lower (36-40%).

Are there any limitations or caveats to be aware of when reporting this work?

“The authors use the reported deaths from COVID-19 in the UK and Italy to back-calculate the number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2. This uses the fact the number of deaths is (approximately) proportional to the number of infected individuals at some earlier time (in this case around 17 days previously). Back calculation requires an estimate of the proportion of the population at risk of severe disease (and so death), but this cannot be estimated as part of the analysis, so it has to be assumed.

“The model treats the UK and Italy as a single well-mixed populations. This means the model will overestimate the rate of spread and, hence, the proportion of the population infected.