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Originally Posted by OLD BOY
I don't buy that, spiderplant. I appreciate that we are still learning about this virus, but did you see that the results of a recent epidemiological model developed by researchers at Oxford University suggested that half the population of the UK may already have been infected by the coronavirus? That being the case, we are fast approaching herd immunity and we may well reach the peak infection rate very soon.
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A hypothesis not backed up by the fact 80% of those tested for Coronavirus test negative. We also have the number of deaths now that they forecast on April 6th. The problem is they are trying to apply mathematical models to something that has far too many unknown variables at this stage.
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When all is said and done, my guess is that the most significant factor about Covid 19 will be acknowledged to be the very fast infection rate, not the mortality rate (which is still a lot less than we can expect in a year with 'normal' flu). It is the high number of deaths within so few weeks that is causing exceptional demand on health services around the world that is significant.
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This is demonstrably false already looking at evidence from Italy. With the Guardian reporting that half of those who reach the 'intensive care' stage dying that figure is only going to go up and up.
We will likely have our own figure in 4-6 weeks that will shatter the 'it's only a flu' theory.