[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by nomadking

Not as simple as that. It is the network of contacts that occurred in the previous 2 weeks. A passes it to B, C, D, etc, and they each pass it on to others and so on. Then there is the issue of indirect transference via contact with contaminated surfaces.

If everybody works under the assumption that they might be carrying it, and they take precautions to avoid potentially giving it to others, then it will calm down.

As far as banning large gatherings, eg sports events, the issue is not just when X gets the bug and gets seriously ill or dies, but they go on to spread it to others around their home area. One of those instances where doing something prematurely is far better than doing it too late.

Exactly this.