Thread: Election 2019 Exit Poll
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Old 12-12-2019, 23:55   #22
1andrew1
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Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien View Post
Well the margin of error could make a huge difference if most of these seats are close but I would think they compensate for them because, as you say, they're rarely wrong.
The Economist has looked at the margin of error in the context of this year's election and even given the margin of error, it shouldn't be a hung Parliament.
Quote:
The exit poll’s uncertainty is communicated in the message that is broadcast at 10pm. A prospective government needs 326 seats to win a majority, but with an approximate margin of error of 15 seats either side, a central estimate of anything under 340 seats for the winning party means that the exit poll cannot rule out the possibility of a hung parliament. In the past three elections, even with remarkably accurate exit polls, the announcement of “Conservatives the largest party” has preceded very different outcomes: in 2010 a hung parliament and a coalition government; in 2015 an outright, albeit, slim majority; and in 2017 another hung parliament and a minority government.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...dgraphicdetail
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