[denphone]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

If that were to be the case then they’ll be targeting strong labour heartlands where historically the tories have no chance. So north east UK. Parts of Sunderland, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough etc.

That’s the leave vote split if that were to be the case. Hung parliament again !!

That is the vexed question though as to what will transpire at the forthcoming General Election as l have just read some quotes from Rob Ford, the politics professor and co-author of a seminal book on the Ukip vote.

Here are several of his quotes from today from his Twitter account.

People seem to be forgetting there are a lot less Labour Leave votes in Labour Leave seats now than in 2016 because a lot of them switched to Cons in 2017. So BXP candidates in Lab Leave seats will usually take more votes from Cons (mostly Leave) than Lab (mostly Remain)

Farage, in short, is making the John Mann error of thinking most Lab votes in Lab Leave seats are Leave voters. They aren’t. By encouraging voters who went from ukip to Con in 2017 to switch back to Bxp in 2019 he’s helping Lab MPs defend such seats

Once again the date of Brexit May hinge on politicians’ inability to understand the ecological fallacy

Appreciate this May be hard to follow so will break it down:
1. Most Lab votes in Leave seats Farage is targeting voted Remain in 2016
2.The voters who will find BXP most attractive in such seats likely to be those who voted UKIP in 2015
3. Most of those voters backed Con in 2017

4. Therefore, BXP will typically (tho not always) hurt Con more than Lab in such seats. Just as (and indeed because) UKIP’s collapse in 2017 benefitted Con more than Lab in such sets