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Originally Posted by Chris
I can’t understand what Corbyn is playing at. His party members might be remainy but his voters aren’t. He can’t hide from the electorate forever, and the mood music coming out of Brussels is that there will be no extension beyond 31 October regardless of what the Commons does. How will he resist demands for an election if we leave with no deal? How will he persuade anyone to vote for him in such circumstances? Surely he has now to stop playing politics and at the very least whip his MPs to abstain. Alternatively, a free vote.
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Why do you think his voters aren't? I don't think that is clear at all. Certainly you could say that the voters in a lot of Labour seats are largely Leave but
Labour's voters in those seats are often disproportionately Remain.
See here for an example of this:
https://www.britishelectionstudy.com.../#.Xai8zC-ZM61
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The root of the strategic dilemma is that, on the one hand, a majority of Labour MPs (61%) represent constituencies that had a majority leave vote in 2016, whilst on the other a clear majority of Labour voters (68%) supported Remain in 2016. Interpreting this difference appears to have been extremely important in guiding Labour strategy, dividing opinions among Labour MPs.
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This represents what social scientists call an ecological fallacy: just because Labour voters disproportionately live in Leave areas doesn’t mean that they are more likely to be Leave voters themselves. Electoral geography does matter, but when it comes to Brexit the impact of Leave versus Remain preferences on party choice is remarkably consistent.
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I think the bigger problem for Corbyn is how he is going to square the argument that he only wanted to avoid a No Deal Brexit after he votes against a Brexit Deal. This'll be electoral catnip for the Tories. The Liberal Democrats don't have this problem - they just hate Brexit - but if Brexit passes then their big electoral card might go away.