[1andrew1]

More very recent Project Reality as the leaks continue...

Brexit crisis: Govt analysis suggests chaos at Dover in event of no-deal departure

Vehicles could face a two-day delay at Dover in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to government documents seen by Sky News.
This analysis, commissioned by the Department for Transport (DfT) suggests that:
On day one of a no-deal Brexit, the worst-case scenario would be a two-day maximum delay for freight and vehicles at Dover and an average wait of one-and-a-half days.
That could amount to a pile-up of up to 8,000 vehicles.
Even with a best-case scenario, with businesses as prepared as they possibly could be, vehicles will be waiting for two to three hours, with 50% of vehicles waiting for at least eight.
The report also says that many haulage companies, faced with lengthy new processing periods, will simply cancel their vehicles' journeys (and with them their cargo) because of long waiting times.
Presently, vehicles from EU countries face a delay of around two minutes.

Any delay such as those suggested by the analysis could lead to shortages of goods on shelves and medical supplies in hospitals.

Previously, ministers sought to dismiss concerns over leaked documents, especially those related to so-called Operation Yellowhammer preparations for no-deal, as they were written under the May government and apparently did not adequately reflect the increased preparations under the new administration.

This was always a questionable interpretation. However, they cannot be levelled at this report as it was compiled over the last fortnight and its assumptions are based around current government policy.

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Irish border after Brexit – all ideas are beset by issues says secret paper

A report summarising the findings of the government’s official “alternative arrangements” working groups concluded that there are issues with all the scenarios put forward to try to replace the backstop arrangement. There are also specific concerns over whether any technological solution could be delivered to monitor cross-border trade...
The dossier marked “official-sensitive” prepared for the EU Exit Negotiations Board is dated 28 August. It details how the findings of all advisory groups informing the government on the Northern Irish border are being kept deliberately under wraps to try to avoid hampering Britain’s intended renegotiation of the backstop agreed to by Theresa May.

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