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Old 27-08-2019, 14:55   #1060
jfman
Architect of Ideas
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Thank you all for your views on this, which are very interesting. I do think that some of you are fearful of the migration to streaming services because you don't actually use them at the moment.

Let me address some of these points.

Grim talks about trawling through content listings of a miriad of streaming services being too much like hard work. I understand that concern. However, what is not being acknowledged is that if you are subscribing to Netflix or Prime, you will get regular emails telling you of new stuff that is now available. Additionally, if you go to the streaming service itself, all the new films and series appear in one place. I know so many of you believe that the EPG is their friend, but how much more difficult is it to look at stuff available on the Home page than trawling through the EPG? It is not a problem.

I note the worries about keeping track of programmes offered by a diverse range of streamers. However, in the future, no doubt Virgin Media, Sky and BT will offer a page where all the programmes and films are displayed from different providers by category and popularity. This is the route being taken by Roku and I am absolutely certain that other providers will follow.

Also, people are not recognising that there will be various means of selecting your programmes, for example by voice activation. You will be able to ask your V6 to find you, say, 'The Crown', and that will be displayed, with the name of the provider, and all that remains for you to do is click on it, assuming you subscribe to that service. The Amazon Fire Stick displays a menu of programmes that are provided by both Prime and Netflix, which scotches the negative thinking of some who still believe that one service would not show programmes provided by another. On the contrary, it is this 'everything on one box' which the streamers are now aware is a popular feature that they can replicate on their own menus.

Grim is also worried about swapping streamers on the right day to ensure no overlap in subscriptions. To be honest, I think people will change streamers occasionally rather than every month, but presumably, everyone has a diary if dates are critical to ensure you don't overspend your budget. Just enter the date on your mobile phone and set the alert!

jfman, as ever, throws a few wobblers. I think most of these points have been answered over time, but in relation to his statement about few suppliers being replaced by many suppliers, I simply don't agree that this will be a problem. Virgin Media and BT see themselves as super-aggregators, and although Sky has a lot of its own content, it probably (reluctantly, I suspect) sees itself going that way as well. If it didn't, why have they embraced Netflix?

Ultimately, there will be a whole range of streamers available, and Virgin/BT/Sky will offer various packages so you can choose what you want, much as you have some choice of channels now with various packages. For channels, think streamers, and everything should fall into place. jfman's analogy isn't really relevant because what we should be comparing are the many channels with the fewer number of streamers.

Although Legendkiller supposes that we are a long way from linear tv being made redundant, in common with many who believe things will change very gradually, I cannot agree with this. The pace of change is quickening in just about every field and technology is what is changing fastest of all. We are not waiting for the very last viewer to stop watching scheduled linear tv before it is put to bed. However, there comes a point where the number of viewers on these channels is insufficient to sustain them any longer. Our resident economist still carries his staunch belief that a TV channel can run on a sixpence, but if the advertising revenue is insuffiient to pay for decent content, people won't watch and advertisers won't advertise. I have said it before, but when ITV's advertising revenue crashed a few years ago, it was in serious trouble. That lesson needs to be learned. The number of people watching streaming services has mushroomed to over 52% of the TV audience. This is only going one way.

Of course, the people to worry about in all this are the poor, who could not run to spending their money on pay tv or streamers. This will be catered for when the TV licence is scrapped and they can use that money to subscribe to Britbox and Netflix, or whatever other combination they choose. There will also be subscription free services supported by advertisements, ensuring that everyone has plenty of choice in the future.

I acknowledge that the issues around sports broadcasting have yet to be resolved, but have no doubt that all sport will be streamed in the future.

---------- Post added at 14:26 ---------- Previous post was at 14:17 ----------



Come on, jfman! Just how far into absurdity can you go?

People will choose which streamers they subscribe to by the content and the price. Isn't that obvious?

Some people will delight in swapping services a lot, others will be interested in sticking with the ones they initially select. I still have a huge amount of content to watch on Netflix and Prime, so why would some people feel compelled to chop and change? You are thinking through problems that don't exist.

---------- Post added at 14:42 ---------- Previous post was at 14:26 ----------



No, it is not a reasonable assumption, oliver. For example, by ditching my subscription to pay tv channels, I would not have easy access to many documentaries shown on the Discovery and other channels, the TLC, Lifetime and Quest Red stuff that my wife likes, the Virgin Media UHD channel, the Virgin Media Exclusives and so on. Additionally, I don't want all my programmes scattered around on various playlists - I want them all in one place.

Once VM or another provider can offer me that and I'm not missing out on the programmes we want to see, I will change over. But of course we are not there yet.

I am subscribed to the top VM package because it is available to me at only £1 above the price I was paying without the Sky premium channels. The fact that Sky Sports channels are included is as irrelevant to me as BT Sport being included in the old Full House. They go with the deal, which has saved me £10.99 in subscriptions for the Movie Pass on Now TV.
Far from being fearful I actually subscribe to three of them!

Couple of points though:

People will subscribe based on content and choice. Somewhat obviously. However that same basis has Sky the market leader in this country and Virgin moving along nicely. Millions actually choose not to have pay-tv altogether. If people are agnostic to the delivery method, which I believe most are, why would that change? If they feel strong why can't the market leaders adapt?

Point 2

Old Boy you have now contradicted yourself. People will not chop and change: Netflix and Prime will have more than enough television for anyone. An interesting notion, as ever the economist in me wonders what space there is in the market for new entrants at all if that statement holds true? It also appears to not enough content for your own household given you pay Virgin an eyewatering £99 a month for their services.
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