Quote:
Originally Posted by ianch99
This is the logical & inexorable outcome of a No Deal scenario. NI has had a lot of EU funding over the years and this level of investment is unlikely to be continued by Westminster given the priority the Leave leaning politicians give NI. I mean, in the Leave campaign, when was the NI border discussed as a strategic factor in the process?
|
It’s the logical and inexorable outcome of demographics. The birth rate amongst the Catholic (and largely nationalist) population in NI is higher than that in the Protestant (and largely unionist) population. Within a couple of decades there will be a natural majority for Irish reunification, a border poll and a change of sovereign control over the territory. The calculation has always been that that would occur so far down the road, with the institutions of Northern Irish government so well established, and with the ongoing cooperation of the British and Irish governments so embedded, that the change would have amounted to little more than a flag-raising ceremony.
Part of what’s worrying Varadkar right now is that Northern Ireland is still a money pit, and a fractious one. A major world economy like the UK has the resources to deal with it. Ireland does not. The Irish neither want nor need Northern Ireland on their plate right now. It suits them to have influence without ever having to pay for it.
I agree with you, Brexit is likely to hasten Irish reunification, but that doesn’t worry me to the extent that that has always been the endgame; just one nobody dared say out loud. It should concern all of us that doing it too soon could cause some problems, but I absolutely don’t agree with the argument that says we shouldn’t do Brexit because it’s too difficult. For me, that simply reinforces the argument that our ongoing entanglement with the EU is de facto eroding our sovereignty.