Thread: VOD Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
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Old 03-06-2019, 08:40   #938
OLD BOY
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
Quote:
Originally Posted by denphone View Post
You always believe everybody else is wrong but your track record over the years does not exactly get the bookies running for cover with your way out predictions.
You cannot assess my track record on forecasts for the future when the future hasn't yet happened...

---------- Post added at 08:40 ---------- Previous post was at 08:03 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh View Post
Can I ask what your economics qualification is, please?
Mine's only an 'A' level, but I feel sure jfman has a first class honours degree with distinction!

Doesn't make him right, though. Professionals often disagree amongst themselves.

I do understand his point, though; Netflix is amassing huge debts, but they have a plan to deal with this in the long term. This plan includes massively expanding the geographical areas of the world that it serves, reducing its new commissions when they judge that they have sufficient original or exclusive material to compete effectively, and selling on the older commissions to other services. The thing that may scupper that plan is if new streaming services come along that lead to significantly declining subscriber numbers as it tries to expand within their existing geographical areas and beyond. jfman seems to think that Netflix will suffer disproportionately from this, but I disagree. Subscribers are far more likely to ditch their satellite and cable subscriptions to their pay tv channels than ditch an excellent streaming service like Netflix.

Providing a separate AVOD service may provide the solution for them, in that case. However, that could lead to a further decline in subscribers for its SVOD service, so it's not straight forward.

It's easy for us to comment from the sidelines, but Netflix has proved very successful to date, and from where I stand, I do think they know what they are doing. Misjudgements can occur, of course, but the key for Netflix is to watch carefully what is going on in the market they understand and modify their plans as necessary.
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