[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by Horizon

Netflix is separate story. They had to build their content library up from nothing and to quote Reed Hastings, "they have to become HBO faster than HBO can become us." They've done it.

I would expect that the bulk of all the streamer's profits will be through DTC services, rather than going through a third party.


Just like the supermarkets, I don't expect anymore than half a dozen large players in this field and the compettion will be fierce. Whether they reach a equilibrium and prices stabilise, remains to be seen.

I never said that Comcast wouldn't be one of them, clearly they are, but more consolidation is coming and I'm certainly not clear what name plate will be on the front doors of the HQs of the Big 5 (or however many cos it will be) in the next five years, but probably Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Netflix.

John Malone has said himself that his empire would be better served by being part of a larger company.

---------- Post added at 10:24 ---------- Previous post was at 10:22 ----------

Originally Posted by Horizon

Numbers play a big part in this and will determine things and who the winners will be and who the losers will be. If, as I expect, Netflix get at least half a billion subscribers, spending $20bn on content each year becomes sustainable. Will Disney or the Apple owned Disney (as I expect it to be) will they catch up with Netflix? Will there be a third truly global player, a fourth and fifth? We'll probably know within the next five years.

As for linear tv, I've said before, what linear tv channels that remain in the future, I expect they will act like shop windows into the streaming services. Perhaps the big streamers will take ads, perhaps not, but the free services will be what linear channels survive and I expect most of the pay tv channels to wither away. Well, that's what Murdoch thought and as he sold the bulk of his empire on that belief, I go with that.

---------- Post added at 21:28 ---------- Previous post was at 21:04 ----------

And just coming back to the comparison with the energy companies, the big tech/media/telco companies may not get everything their own way.

I've spoken about for years about what I originally called the portals, which in today's terms would probably be called social media.

As well as the big media/tech companies, there could literally hundreds/thousands of sites producing quality content and people come together from around the world on their favourite subjects and chip in to fund it, what we would now call crowdfunding. These sites may not attract the big name actors or directors, but that does not mean they would all be rubbish or not find their own niche. Look at youtube. There's rubbish on there, but also quality stuff.

Discovery are working towards the idea that everything of theirs will be eventually distributed via VOD, with only one linear channel remaining as a Barker channel.