Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth
This is where it gets interesting.
Are the EU countries blinking? Maybe not Ireland yet; maybe not all; but the smoke signals are emerging.
Does it hinge on Geoffrey Cox providing a positive legal opinion?
Does it hinge on that Corbyn thing manoeuvring for power or will he give Labour a Free vote?
Would the best Tory psychology be to give their members a free vote?
So many variables that keep the risk high that there would be no deal.
I’d be happy with a deal that limits the backstop but not one that enshrines in treaty that the future relationship will be founded around a customs union.
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It’s increasingly hard to read the runes here. The chaos is genuine. I don’t think anyone knows what will happen, and while I do believe the EU is hoping for a rebellion in the Commons sufficient to prevent a No Deal, I still don’t see them agreeing to the extension of A50 that Amber Rudd wants, unless there’s some sort of plan for what to do with the extra time.
Ireland meanwhile is truly cacking itself right now. Of that I have no doubt.