Thread: Brexit (Old)
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Old 06-01-2019, 15:15   #5789
1andrew1
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth View Post
All these new polls then . . . are they by the same people that got it 'oh so drastically wrong' the first time?

Beats me why sane people even give them a second glance
YouGov and many other polling companies got the exit polls correct on the night but polling companies are not allowed to divulge exit polls to the public when polling is underway. So they only disclosed their out-of-date polls to the likes of you and me which is why you believe they got it wrong.

This is a great article that explains how hedge funds profited from this situation. A relevant extract.
Quote:
Behind the scenes, a small group of people had a secret—and billions of dollars were at stake. Hedge funds aiming to win big from trades that day had hired YouGov and at least five other polling companies, including Farage's favorite pollster. Their services, on the day and in the days leading up to the vote, varied, but pollsters sold hedge funds critical, advance information, including data that would have been illegal for them to give the public. Some hedge funds gained confidence, through private exit polls, that most Britons had voted to leave the EU, or that the vote was far closer than the public believed—knowledge pollsters provided while voting was still underway and hours ahead of official tallies. These hedge funds were in the perfect position to earn fortunes by short selling the British pound. Others learned the likely outcome of public, potentially market-moving polls before they were published, offering surefire trades.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...beat-the-crash
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