[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

So there’s no recognised model?

Looks like some people want me address this stupid question.
I do a lot of statistical work and have a decent understanding of the maths and methods. Of course I’m no economist (though I have a modest understanding of economic modelling from a year’s workmI did in the 1980s).

The essence of economic modelling is for the variables that combine to form economic output to be rationally applied. Rationally is important because these variables are highly dependent on psychological assessment of human behaviour in many dimensions. How that is applied is never explained. So, when every rational combination has been applied, the various outcomes are predicted.

What we never see is the result of each case; we only see whatever someone wants us to see. The variables are never explained to us - all we see is headlines, particularly if they are dramatic.

I expect a certain contributor to spend time picking holes in the above.

The real thing about Brexit is to get away from the EU shackles and build on that.