Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
It's certainly not Brexit that is collapsing - only the Withdrawal Agreement!
---------- Post added at 11:01 ---------- Previous post was at 10:37 ----------
I think some are seizing on these forecasts as being proof of their unshakable belief that Brexit will be a disaster. It won't be, of course, just as the world didn't come to an end immediately after the vote to leave was announced.
The remainers like to describe the whole process as a shambles, and don't they like to go on, and on, and on about this and their predicted implosion of the world as we know it?
Despite everything the 'remoaners' are saying, and I use that term to distinguish normal remainers from those who just won't accept the democratic result of the referendum, we now have the best withdrawal agreement that can be negotiated with the EU. Remoaners said we would end up paying the EU hundreds of billions of pounds to leave, we settled at £39bn. They said TM would never get to Phase Ii of the negotiating process. Then they said we would never get a deal. They have been wrong on all counts to date and yet they still, with gallons of false confidence, proclaim this as a disaster and the post Brexit world as a catastrophe for 'little' Britain. It's all tosh.
We are now at a situation where we have three pretty good choices. We accept the imperfect Withdrawal Agreement on the basis that this is the bridge we cross to get out of the EU, preserving frictionless trade with no tariffs in the meantime. Or we can take the Norway route as that bridge instead of the Withdrawal Agreement, but which would mean that free movement of people would have to continue during that period. Or we can just make a clean break and negotiate our trade deal when we are out.
All this emotion and nonsense about Brexit is just hot air. The economic forecasts are all based on the downsides, the worst case scenarios quoted out of context and practically no attention is being paid to the upsides of better deals and cheaper goods from the rest of the world.
Those watching all this in bewilderment should be reassured that we will get through this despite the prophets of doom, and if there is some disruption, it will be minor and short lived. A small price to pay to realise our dreams for a brighter future.
And just a final word to the remoaners. We are not 'little' Britain. We are Great Britain, and if you want proof, check your atlas.
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So I guess you are happy with how the government has performed since 2016 in this respect?
When almost all of the forecasts indicate a downturn in performance of the UK economy even with trade deals. For example, the recent government study takes in to account that we will have comprehensive trade deals according to government policy with United States, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Brunei, China, India, Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay) and the Gulf-Cooperation Council (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain)
The question is, if almost all forecasts indicate a downturn in the economy then we need to talk about how much rather than whether it will happen. See climate change studies as a similar example.. If the methodology is flawed, then where are the 'correcting' studies by other groups or is the entire science of economics flawed?
I hope you are right and the negative impacts are low but we need to be ready in case this is not the case. Personally, in my situation, we can absorb a fair level of financial shock (Brexit proofing our mortgage with a really long term fixed rate for example) and most of my work comes from the EU rather than the UK. I am worried this will not be the case for everyone though.