Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
It would be interesting to see what they took into account in coming to that conclusion. Doubtless, they could do a calculation based on potential loss of trade, but what about new opportunities? It would be difficult to assess that of course because they cannot know how businesses will react and the type of benefits that would flow from their initiatives.
So these reports will always underestimate the potential benefits because they have no hard information to go on, whereas potential loss of business can, for the most part.
I wouldn't lose any sleep over this impact assessment!
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Page 23 of that study is our friend here with a pickup of 12% in trade from the anglosphere (USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) and 19% growth from the BRIICs (Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, India, China and South Africa) if there are trade deals. The proposed FTAs used in the study are 'average' based on previous agreements.
Here's a blog post on the effects of FTAs post Brexit -
https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/will-ne...ow-hard-brexit
As always, the error bars tend to be quite large and use a number of assumptions and this paper is clear in taking one factor (brexit) in to account.