Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
The market as a whole would need to sell far more than 13m subscriptions in total to match the combined revenue levels, and would rely on most subscribers taking a number of the options available negating any “savings” made for the end user.
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No it wouldn't.
Ok, pretend the Sky £24 channel bundle is distributed as follows:
Disney gets £6 per subscriber - multiplied by 13m subscribers is £78000000
AT&T gets £6 per subscriber - multiplied by 13m subscribers is £78000000
Viacom/CBS gets £4 per subscriber - multiplied by 13m subscribers is £52000000
Comcast gets £4 per subscriber - multiplied by 13m subscribers is £52000000
Fox gets £2 per subscriber - multiplied by 13m subscribers is £26000000
Sony gets £2 per subscriber - multiplied by 13m subscribers is £26000000
Now, if the Hollywood companies stop receiving a share of that £24 channel bundle and the bundle is eliminated and they all launch DTC streamers at the same price as before, the figures don't change.
So, a Disney streamer costing £6 per month, only needs the same 13m subscribers to get the same dosh, the £78000000. But what I think you are saying, is that the companies will likely charge more for their streamers, than what they currently share between them from channel bundles, thus increasing the cost to consumers. Is that a fair summing up of your position?
They don't need 52 million subscribers, so i don't know where you're getting that from. For Sony to still get the same revenue as before, the £26000000, and charging £10 per month for its streamer, it only needs 2,600,000 subscribers not 13m.
What is the unknown and going back to Old Boy's remarks about the £60 Full House bundle, is, if each of those six streamers each charge £10 per month for their streamers and you add on the cost of the broadband and sports too (for those that want to pay for it)on top of that, how many would subscribe?
I don't know the answer to that and neither do the Hollywood companies, hence their anxiousness about streaming. At the moment, they are guaranteed a share of the channel bundle pot, in a DTC streaming world, they've got to go out and get their own punters for their services. No guarantees at all.
We do not know how many streamers there will be and don't forget our British services too, or at what cost they will. Until the consolidation in the States is finished among the media/telecom/tech cos, there are too many unknowns at the moment.