[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

More or less agreed. That's why I like to quote Varoufakis. I have no confidence in the EU's bona fides.

---------- Post added at 16:23 ---------- Previous post was at 16:20 ----------



Agreed. I quote Varoufakis simply to say he warned us about those EU tricksters.

I too wanted to remain in the EU - a reformed EU. Of course Cameron was never going to pull that off. The Varoufakis dream cannot be achieved and we are leaving the unreformed EU.

But why would they have any faith in ours? Gove has admitted in public that any agreement could be reneged upon in the future.

---------- Post added at 16:31 ---------- Previous post was at 16:24 ----------

Really interesting analysis of "imminent" FTA with Australia:

https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/sta...58691629338626

1. The UK has started the consultation process for the Australian trade agreement. Australia has already carried out some of this as part of an investigation into a future deal, Brexit, and UK trade in general.

So, shall we see what they have to say about the UK and Brexit?

2. OK, first let’s look at submissions involving strategy:

Sone Australians are concerned of damaging their relationship, with Europe, while not wanting to get caught up into the “possibly unrealistic worldview of the Brexiteers”.

3. Australia shouldn't get drawn into this Anglosphere British worldview against its interest, and it is possible the UK has both overestimated the desire of third countries to trade with it outside of the EU, and underestimated how long it will take to do meaningful deals.

4. The UK is likely to be the distressed negotiator, and it should be possible to extract significant concessions. Alternatively, it may be better to allow a major economy to negotiate those first, and then use the result of those negotiations as a baseline.

5. Australia should not hasten to complete a deal as a result of the uncertain geopolitical and economic climate resulting from Brexit. It should create a forum to facilitate a future deal while focusing on the deal with the European Union.

6. Australia has a strategic advantage from being able to spend years closely monitor the UK’s negotiating position. It should not allow the UK to delay or undermine the negotiations with the European Union.

7. There may be history between Australia and the UK, but nostalgia should not override trade realities. Australia should draw on recent developments to diversify its trade links with Europe and foster greater connections with EU, and non-EU, countries.

8. Secondly, the loss of the Single Market is an issue:

Support should be given to Australian businesses who make use of the Single Market, so they can assess options and adjust their business priorities accordingly. Alternative sources of entry should be extensively explored.

9. Brexit will not affect the EU / Australia trade negotiations. In terms of the UK, businesses could be expected to adapt to new terms being negotiated between the EU and the UK, and structure their investments accordingly. For example, the loss of ‘passporting’ is a key issue.

10. Several Victorian companies with presence in the UK use it as a platform to enter the EU market. The success of the EU/UK negotiations will affect the success and / or expansion plans in the region. One issue being ‘passporting’.

11. The effect on financial services remain unclear, and Brexit may result in the centre of the European financial services sector shifting to mainland Europe. Uncertainty may prompt a rebalance to Asia, which will provide new opportunities for New South Wales.

12. Australian lawyers will not be able to work with UK lawyers to set up businesses in the UK that can then take advantage of the freedom of establishment principle, and Australian lawyers can no longer recommend their clients set up in the UK under the law of England and Wales.

13. Brexit has major implications for UK trade while creating opportunities and challenges for Australia’s trade. Consumer goods between Australia and the UK will likely grow, and Australia can also take advantage of the UK’s loss of competitiveness in Europe.

and so on ..