Thread: Brexit (Old)
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Old 05-10-2018, 11:33   #1629
jonbxx
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Re: Brexit Discussion (Follow First Post Rules!)

Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
What, you mean one of those people who can't get a job at a decent rate of pay because of the immigrants arriving and driving down wages at the lower end?
It's true that the lowest wage earners see a suppression in wages but the higher wage earners have seen an increase;

Quote:
Given the 6.7 percentage point increase in the EU-born working age population
ratio between 1993 and 2017 the implied total effect on UK-born nominal wages
of EU immigration is of the order of a 5.2 per cent reduction to the 5th percentile
a 4.9 per cent reduction at the 10th percentile, a 1.6 per cent reduction to the
25th percentile, a 1.6 per cent increase at the median, a 2.2 per cent increase
at the 75th percentile and a 4.4 and 3.1 per cent increase at the 90th and 95th
percentiles respectively. As previously stated this type exercise should be
interpreted with caution as the model only estimates the short-run response to
migration. Economic theory, and evidence, suggests that any short-run impact
is likely to dissipate overtime.
However, the very next section says;

Quote:
Again, it is useful to place these estimates in context. Over this whole period
(1993-2017), hourly real wages for UK-born workers increased by 55 per cent
and 46 per cent at the 5th and 10th percentile respectively, 37 per cent at the
25th percentile, 34 per cent at the median, 33 per cent at the 75th and 32 per
cent at the 90th percentiles and finally 39 per cent at the 95th percentile. These
estimates therefore suggest that EU immigration had a relatively small impact
on overall wage growth.
So the effects are small at best.

Quote from the Governments own study here - https://assets.publishing.service.go...EEA_report.PDF
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