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**Hugh** · 05-10-2018, 10:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

What, you mean one of those people who can't get a job at a decent rate of pay because of the immigrants arriving and driving down wages at the lower end?

There are advantages as well as disadvantages to leaving the EU, but more positives than negatives.

The problem is, too many people are concentrating on the negatives, and that includes the economic forecasters.

Sounds a bit like "Project Fear" to me...

Actually, what research has found is

https://www.channel4.com/news/factch...ive-down-wages

Quote:

Boris Johnson got caught out yesterday when he was forced to admit he hadn’t actually read a Bank of England study he used in an attack on the EU.

The former Mayor of London and Vote Leave campaigner was sparring with ex-SNP leader Alex Salmond in an online Brexit debate organised by the Daily Telegraph and the Huffington post.

Mr Johnson claimed that people on low incomes would see their wages rise if Britain leaves the EU, citing the Bank of England as a source.

He said: “It was a Bank of England study which showed that for every 10 per cent increase in immigration, there was a 2 per cent reduction in wages.”

“Have you actually read it?” Mr Salmond asked. Mr Johnson was forced to admit: “I have not read that study.”...

Quote:

As well as looking at average wages across the economy as a whole, the analysts divided jobs into different sectors.

A street cleaner works in front of the Bank of England (BOE) in the City of London, U.K. on Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2015. A worsening global outlook will damp U.K. growth and persuade the Bank of England to keep its key rate at a record low until the third quarter, according to the British Chambers of Commerce. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg via Getty Images
They found that native wages are likely to fall the most as a result of immigration in the area of “semi/unskilled services”.

The study says: “A 10 percentage point rise in the proportion of immigrants working in semi/unskilled services — that is, in care homes, bars, shops, restaurants, cleaning, for example — leads to a 1.88 per cent reduction in pay.”

That’s close to the 2 per cent quoted by Boris Johnson, and if he had talked about a “reduction in wages for the low-skilled” rather than just “a reduction in wages” in general, he would have been right.

(Note that the “10 percentage point rise” scenario the Bank uses is much bigger than the “10 per cent rise” mentioned by both men. A 10 per cent rise in the EU-born population of the UK is 300,000. A 10 percentage point rise is about 9 million.)

There are other studies in this area that have come up with similar results. Most find that the effect of even a large increase of immigration on overall wages is extremely small, whether positive or negative.

This 2008 paper from UCL’s Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration found a slight positive effect on overall wages, but said immigration depressed wages for the very low-paid.

So there is an adverse effect on the very low-paid, but only a small one - around 1/30th of 1.8% (according to the figures quoted).