View Single Post
Old 06-09-2018, 03:47   #59
Lutherf
cf.member
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 51
Lutherf will become famous soon enoughLutherf will become famous soon enoughLutherf will become famous soon enough
Re: Another day, another mass shooting

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh View Post
Citation, please?

I have tried looking for the source of that stat, and the most commonly quoted source is a CDC press release - http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr61/nvsr61_06.pdf

There is nothing in that press release to support the 80% statistic.
First, I'm not sure where you came up with anything "80%". My claim was that the homicide rate, excluding suicides, was driven by gang violence.

While there are several studies by ostensibly partisan groups available I prefer to go with something simple from the US Center for Disease Control. This study is a bit dated but I'll link to source data that is current. - https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6103a2.htm

Quote:
Editorial Note

Homicide is the second leading cause of death among persons aged 15–24 years in the United States (4). In some cities, such as Los Angeles and Long Beach, gang homicides account for the majority of homicides in this age group (61% and 69%, respectively). The differences observed in gang versus nongang homicide incidents with regard to victim demographics, place of injury, and the use of drive-by shootings and firearms are consistent with previous reports (5). The finding that gang homicides commonly were not precipitated by drug trade/use or other crimes in progress also is similar to previous research; however, this finding challenges public perceptions on gang homicides (5). The public often has viewed gangs, drug trade/use, crime, and homicides as interconnected factors; however, studies have shown little connection between gang homicides and drug trade/use and crime (5). Gangs and gang members are involved in a variety of high-risk behaviors that sometimes include drug and crime involvement, but gang-related homicides usually are attributed to other circumstances (6). Newark was an exception by having a higher proportion of gang homicides being drug-related. A possible explanation of this divergent finding could be that Newark is experiencing homicides by gangs formed specifically for drug trade. Overall, these findings support a view of gang homicides as retaliatory violence. These incidents most often result when contentious gang members pass each other in public places and a conflict quickly escalates into homicide with the use of firearms and drive-by shootings.
It should be noted that "Gang Violence", as defined for this study, does not include victims who were affiliated with a gang but died from an incident not directly related to gang activity -
Quote:
Gang-related: homicide is suspected to have resulted from gang activity or gang rivalry; not used if the decedent was a gang member but the homicide did not appear to result from gang activity.
https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/nvdrs/faqs.html

This can create a "Gang Violence" category that is underreported because many gang related homicides will then fall into the "Arguments" or "Drug Involvement" categories, both of which are often tied to gang activity.

This data - https://wisqars.cdc.gov:8443/nvdrs/nvdrsController.jsp
gives an overview of homicides by circumstance for 5 relatively low crime states. The data from the study cited in the first link covers certain high crime cities but uses the same definition of "Gang Violence".

Because of the narrow definition of "Gang Violence" used in these studies it's difficult to come up with hard data. The CDC study, however, emphasizes gang activity as a significant factor in, especially, the youth homicide rate.

This study by the National Gang Center (also a government entity) is a bit more clear regarding the impact of gangs on homicide rate, especially in more populated cities - https://www.nationalgangcenter.gov/s...-gang-problems
Quote:
Number of Gang-Related Homicides*

*Because of the many issues surrounding the maintenance and collection of gang-crime data, caution is urged when interpreting the results presented below. For more information regarding this issue, see: www.nationalgangcenter.gov/About/FAQ#q5.

The number of gang-related homicides reported from 2007 to 2012 is displayed by area type and population size.

From 2007 through 2012, a sizeable majority (more than 80 percent) of respondents provided data on gang-related homicides in their jurisdictions.
The total number of gang homicides reported by respondents in the NYGS sample averaged nearly 2,000 annually from 2007 to 2012. During roughly the same time period (2007 to 2011), the FBI estimated, on average, more than 15,500 homicides across the United States (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr...tables/table-1). These estimates suggest that gang-related homicides typically accounted for around 13 percent of all homicides annually.
Highly populated areas accounted for the vast majority of gang homicides: nearly 67 percent occurred in cities with populations over 100,000, and 17 percent occurred in suburban counties in 2012.
The number of gang-related homicides decreased 2 percent from 2010 to 2011 and then increased by 28 percent from 2011 to 2012 in cities with populations over 100,000.
In a typical year in the so-called “gang capitals” of Chicago and Los Angeles, around half of all homicides are gang-related; these two cities alone accounted for approximately one in four gang homicides recorded in the NYGS from 2011 to 2012.
Among agencies serving rural counties and smaller cities that reported gang activity, around 75 percent reported zero gang-related homicides. Five percent or less of all gang homicides occurred in these areas annually.
Overall, these results demonstrate conclusively that gang violence is greatly concentrated in the largest cities across the United States.
-edit-
I noticed that one of the links goes to a data page that can't render outside of my search. The search parameters for that link were entered from this page - https://wisqars.cdc.gov:8443/nvdrs/nvdrsDisplay.jsp - and included:
1. Violent death counts by Known Circumstances
2. Checked off only Homicide
3 & 4 were "all"
5. was all years, all states, all everything else

Last edited by Lutherf; 06-09-2018 at 03:53.
Lutherf is offline   Reply With Quote