Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456
There's a little problem there no-one seems to have spotted. I'm assuming you are relying on amendment 7 on EU (Withdrawal) Bill 2018. The meaningful vote.
Source |
Yeah Sepiroth made the best comments on it here, as best I can see:
https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...&postcount=627
The first part of his comments best explain the difficulties in getting an agreement from all member states etc but Barnier and Macron really did hint that were there to be that "substantial change" then it could lead to an extension of A50:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...y-eu-officials
Quote:
EU officials and diplomats have told the Guardian it would instead require a fundamental shift in British politics for there to be any value for the EU in an extension of the UK’s membership. That position is echoed in Berlin and Paris, among other EU capitals.
Article 50 can only be extended by the unanimous agreement of the 27 other member states, and on the request of the withdrawing state, which May has already said she is not prepared to do.
|
At this point every person knows that May's opinion is irrelevant - even if she is opposed nobody cares.
What becomes interesting is what Barnier and co determine to be a "substantial change"...is it a leadership contest? If the prospect of a new government suffices that would surely warrant a delay...and at that point we all know that the UK will be staying in the EU.
One thing to remember...Ireland is still a part of the EU. If the EU were to protect their interests (as they should) then they will likely show a little leniency to keep the UK in. (To avoid a hard border etc).
Of course they could shatter the UK into pieces by allowing a hard border, seeing a United Ireland (following a BP) and break British sovereignty altogether....but they're not nasty like that.
Only way that there is any chance to leave, is if there is a leadership contest / new Tory PM, who promises a GE. Even then, the odds that we are leaving in March of next year are next to zero.