Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick
Not necessarily. There wasn’t a GE called when Cameron resigned. Plus there is that little issue of the fixed term parliament act and I think people in U.K. are getting a little tired of elections.
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This is actually the biggest hurdle in getting somewhere. The FTPA ; another thing Cameron and Clegg screwed part of the Tory party over.
Okay so the way I see it...if May caves to the EU to get this Checkers deal, they will say no. She loses on that front. If they say no and there is a no deal scenario, parliament will vote it down. The UK will stay in the EU by default. (The EU will amend the A50 withdrawal, for that purpose). Labor will not back this current deal, so she can't even get it through with their support (in parliament) - every option she loses.
The only way round this that I see is if the rank and file turf her and a new leader comes in - he calls a new GE and the country has a GE. Yes, the FTPA is an issue but if a majority vote for a new election then the parliamentary rules allow for it to be called on a simple majority.
Which MP is going to say no to the idea of another GE? May is the only thing holding it up...I have been saying for over a year now that she is the issue and now finally everyone else is coming round to the idea....but you have a very short time to get this done. If she falls in Oct you have months left to call a GE and get a larger majority...otherwise a "no deal" exit will fail, and the UK will stay in the EU.
Her plan is toast. A no deal scenario is the only way forward - you can't do it with the current numbers in Whitehall, she has to go and the new leader of the Tories would be able to justify a GE. Corbyn is there for the taking now, you will win
big, so long as you don't pick the wrong leader.
You won't leave the EU with this parliamentary breakdown.