Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
Just ask yourself how more trade can make us poorer.
|
That is exactly what will happen though. We will get poorer. Why? Not because we have more trade but because we will have friction and tariffs in the trade that we used to have that was open and free and because the rest already will have the trade with the bloc that used to involve us, less us after our departure.
After March 2019 we're telling the rest of the world: "we're here, come get us". We are not putting an "open for business" sign up, we are putting a "open for pillaging" sign up and that we are here for the spoils.
Quote:
|
You have to go along with that negative attitude so many people have to believe that trade will suffer to the degree that this will be the disaster they point to. The EU will still want to export to us, won't they? Look at the size of that trade surplus!
|
They will comfortably be able to take an 80 billion a year hit...easily. More fool us if we think that they will care about that. They'll make it up in other ways (at our expense) like fees / currency charges / service changes and so on.
We are never ever going to win this battle, ever.
Quote:
|
The impact any tariffs likely to be applied to our exports to the EU would be fairly marginal, and easily made up for by our ability to forge new trade deals. And if, as speculated by some, we decide to apply no tariffs, that will reduce the price of goods coming in (competing with EU goods) and reduce EU exports to us (thereby damaging the EU).
|
If we decide to levy no tariffs to nations outside the EU, it would be a great thing...you know why?
Because it will put all the dead wood who all voted to leave, out of business. What is the point in bitching about EU member states undercutting us, only to have the rest of the world outside Europe, come eat our lunch???
Quote:
|
This is not a one way street when we look at the implications of Brexit. A no deal will hurt both sides, but we will come out of it better thanks to all our new trading partners.
|
I have to keep asking...what new trade deals?? The US is a 20 trillion dollar economy, and in the midst of the 2020 Presidential campaign there will be zero appetite for a trade deal.
Trump will wish to fleece the UK but no way does it get through the Senate, which it needs to.
Britain will
not come out of this better off - the US is going to rip the UK into pieces, which it still cannot while the UK is still a part of the EU. (The largest trading bloc in the world).
Trump managed to get past Rexit eventually this year and his new negotiator / diplomat in chief is being outdone by Kim Jong Un. Brexit would be a step too far - because if he were to be outdone by this group in the cabinet then he should resign as President. It is one thing to be outdone by North Korea but by May? The Japanese would tell him to go out honorably at that point.
If Trump wins re-elect / gets through past 2021 or so and there is a transition period short enough then I suppose the UK could present itself (in the mating sense) to the US and allow Cornyn / Pence etc to get even more out of Britain before 2024 - I guess that everyone will learn the hard way in the end.
Trump is chomping at the bit here, so it Manuchin / Kudlow / Ross etc. They are just from within the cabinet. Cornyn and co want a go in the Senate...God knows what the House make all of this, too.
Do you really want to save your pride only to be cannibalized by a nation with almost 10 times the economy???