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Re: Brexit discussion
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
5
Well, I guess it depends on which forecasts you are comparing. There have been many occasions I have noted where the regional forecast has said the exact opposite of the national forecast for my area. They are both issued by the Met Office!
So provide two different forecasts and compare the reality with whichever one was correct! ��
---------- Post added at 13:30 ---------- Previous post was at 13:24 ----------
You didn't say it, Andrew, but you seem to love quoting them and the economists supporting your arguments as if their forecasts prove your point.
My point is that the forecasts they make a rarely correct. This is largely down to the assumptions made, so if their assumptions are wrong, the projections will be wrong.
And let's not forget that economists and civil servants always tend to take an over-cautious stance.
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Funnily enough, that exact point was mentioned in the article I got the previous data from... 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/guides/zg7vcwx
Quote:
Weather forecasters attract our disdain when things turn out differently from their predictions. They are the obvious ones to blame when rain ruins a picnic or trip to the beach.
But is that fair?
Everyone's affected by what psychologists call “confirmation bias” – the tendency to notice evidence that supports a pre-existing belief but ignore information which contradicts it. So people tend to think forecasters always get it wrong because they forget the thousands of correct forecasts and remember the incorrect one.
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