[1andrew1]

‘No deal’ Brexit would cost UK households £1,000 a year
Whatever deal is struck with EU, costs will rise and profitability will fall, study finds
- Research models five Brexit scenarios
- Study shows will cost households £245-£961 annually
- Consumer businesses face losses unless they raise prices
- A “no deal” Brexit could cost UK households £1,000 a year, with the impact disproportionately felt by poorer households, according to new research.

The study by consultants Oliver Wyman suggests that whatever deal is struck with Brussels, UK household spending will rise and consumer businesses’ profitability will fall after Brexit.
Under a “no deal” Brexit scenario, where all imported goods from the EU were subject to World Trade Organization tariffs, the overall cost to households
would be £27bn a year, or nearly £1,000 per household...
The research modelled five of the most commonly discussed scenarios of a UK exit from the EU:
- a deal that left the UK out of the customs union but in the single market and vice versa;
- one in which the UK achieved a bespoke customs and single market deal;
- and two in which the UK left the single market and customs union but, in one alternative, applied WTO tariffs to imports and, in the other, unilaterally decided to apply zero tariffs to imports.
It found that the annual average increase to household costs under the scenarios ranged from £245 to £961 annually. It also found that, for each 5 per cent that sterling devalued against the US dollar and the euro, household costs increased by a further £380 a year.
Any subsequent free trade deals, which allowed the UK to move to zero-tariff trade with all non-EU countries, would reduce costs by £120 to £170.

https://www.ft.com/content/f03e700c-...d-d8b934ff5ffa

A Brexit deal that results in no new tariffs with the EU is still likely to increase the red tape costs of imports, driving down profits for businesses, and driving up prices for consumers," Mr Brewer continued.
"Looking across the whole supply chain and taking into account multiple different Brexit outcomes, one thing is clear: Brexit will decrease profits for consumer businesses.
"The only question is by how much, which will depend on what deal is negotiated.
"While businesses will do all they can to absorb rising costs, we expect they will be forced to gradually put up prices for shoppers. If they don't, profits could vanish."
The Oliver Wyman analysis looks at different sectors and the possible consequences of Britain's new relationship with the EU.
It will suggest that a supermarket chain with annual takings of £10bn would see profits fall by a third under the mos benign Brexit scenario modelled.
Prices would need to rise by 2.3% to compensate and ensure the business made as much profit as it did pre-Brexit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44511829

---------- Post added at 08:00 ---------- Previous post was at 07:53 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Our trade with the EU might decline marginally, but this will be surpassed by our ability to get more trade from the rest of the world, and there will be no further contributions to the EU.

I have faith that the British people can pull this off. The defeatists will be proved wrong before much longer, and this ridiculous negative attitude will be quietly forgotten by those currently promoting all this doom and gloom.

You simply don't trust the hard-working British people Old Boy. You choose to disrespect the hard work of our civil servants and consultancies when they analyse how the economy will perform post-Brexit.