[Chloé Palmas]

Originally Posted by Hugh

That didn't come true, did it?

Did anyone seriously think atht she was going to win that election?

2800 posts into this thread I might have a lot of reading to do to figure out if anyone thought that it was going to go otherwise but this was my on prediction before the GE:

http://www.elite-politics.com/showth...ll=1#post15313

After the election I thought that she should resign but lately all I have wanted is for her to stick around - as long as possible. To every detractor of hers (I consider myself one, I loathe the woman) just remember that you will never ever be able to humiliate another PM the way you can to May.

This is the text of my prediction (the night before the GE last year):

So one month lasted 6, and May couldn't get anything through parliament so she decided to call an election. This has nothing to do with Europe - this is primarily to do with the fact that her majority meant that

1. She could pass nothing with defections

2. She had to stick to the manifesto - like no tax hikes etc.

When Hammond tried in the budget, the government would have lost the bill and collapsed due to a motion of NC - ironically, now May is thinking of replacing him as chancellor with Rudd (another waste of space - Hammond is the only solid member of her cabinet).

So let's go back a few months. May was a giver. She gave a lot (usually with both legs flailing wide open) and she just gave. UKIP were a threat - she thought that if she was so hard lined on Europe that they would go vote Tory. She forgot about the fact that they are poor and will vote WN / traditional Labor to do what they do best: unionize. After Goldsmith lost his seat, I thought that May would go. To her credit, she hung on. Then she picked up a seat in...Tristan's seat I believe. That was the peak of her tenure - the thought that white working to poor class voters would vote Tory was hilarious. They were opposed to immigrants (which she let in as HS), they liked their healthcare and social housing / and most importantly they loved their unions. The thought of them voting for a free market party was bordering on absurd - the EU vote was based on populism and that is traditional NL.

She caught on as much when she tried a proposal (through the campaign) of capping natural gas bills - being the little socialist that she is. Too late - she miscalculated and realized that the pitchfork poor wanted what Trump fans want, an era of life that no longer exists. She had a terrible week last week when she tried telling EU leaders that she would have her cake and eat it (poor form for a diabetic), she lost the seat in Richmond to the LD of all parties, she saw court battle lost after court battle and all the while she tried to claim that she could get a good deal from Brussels. She couldn't even get new grammers through WH and thought that she could negotiate in good faith with 27 world leaders. Sturgeon is hijacking Fox hunting and she just keeps giving Nicola more and more and more.

She thought that she could get access to the single market without free movement of people, Merkel told her to shove that.

She thought that there would be no divorce bill and the two biggest morons in the party (David / Boris) are busy trying to go along with that.

Then there's terrorism...she has overseen 3 terror attacks in less than 3 months. Killed over 30, wounded over 100. She tried threatening the EU with "no co-operation" or terrorism, who is that now hurting?

There is only one thing that will keep her in power from tomorrow and that is if she picks up 10 to 12 seats in Scotland. For all her "Jeremy Corbyn backed / propped up the SNP" tripe, Nicola Sturgeon is the only one who will keep her in office because the SNP will lose seats north of the border.

Labor will get around at least 250 seats, maybe more - at the very least there will be a hung parliament. May is in free fall - at the moment she has a majority of like 12. If it is anything less than about 25 to 40 she will likely have to reign but I do not even see that happening. I think that tomorrow will be May's last day as PM, and then she will resign. If a majority of over 50 is achieved, it will be a battle of maneuvering as to who will take over within the Tory ranks (Boris would likely be the clear front runner).

My Prediction is that the conservatives will lose tomorrow and the only way that they will hold on is if the SNP lose about 15 seats in Scotland or so.

Mark's worst nightmare was the Trump would be US President, and that Corbyn would be UK PM. That reality is about to hit.

Then, I will go on to explain why and how I came to these conclusions and with such ease. We all expect that the notion of the original 150 to 160 majority projection for May is a joke...Thresher's 38 seat prediction would be some achievement from May but I do not think that she will get there and will have to resign after the result tomorrow. The only thing remaining to be seen is whether Jeremy can win an outright majority or not.

I can't possible imagine that anyone predicted that May would win a majority - the fact that she did makes it all the more amusing to keep her as PM. What a dreadful candidate.

---------- Post added at 02:00 ---------- Previous post was at 01:50 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

No amount of words from me or you will resolve the Ireland situation. That's why the Government has made the decision it has. Stand by for it to stay in the single market as well.

This is about the most awesome place to be - watching May squirm. She leaves the CU and there is a hard border with Ireland then Ireland will vote no among the 27 member states of the EU left, when it comes to a trade deal. The DUP will veto the deal, in the house too. May decides to stick with the CU and JRM and the ERG will all write letters to Brady, time for a leadership contest. She is screwed whichever option she tries and Brussels will veto anything but a membership of the CU ; let's not rush this, there are months ahead of agony for May.

To every single opponent of May, please remember that you will never get the chance to humiliate another PM the way May has to go begging to every side...enjoy it for now, savor it. North lost America, Chamberlain gave away parts of the Eastern bloc to Hitler, Cameron lost Europe altogether and it'll be a miracle if May doesn't lose Ireland or the pound - I can't see her keeping both. In fact, given the new terms that Britain will have to agree to when it eventually rejoins the EU, not only will the currency be gone but contributions to the EU will have to start so we will have to pay 40 billion in leaving first time round, for nothing.

---------- Post added at 02:34 ---------- Previous post was at 02:00 ----------

Originally Posted by denphone

Still waiting for the milk and honey though and the new blue passport from just over the water..

Lol...mind you Boris needs to tweak his line about cake. Not "you can have your cake and eat it" but "you can have your diabetic and eat her too...once you empanel her as PM".

---------- Post added at 02:37 ---------- Previous post was at 02:34 ----------

Originally Posted by Mick

Not even the Governor of the bank of England has the foresight to see in the future and what trade deals we can do once we leave.

He does know one thing though, he knows that if we remain a part of the Customs Union we won't even be able to strike them in the first place. And we almost certainly will be staying in the customs union in one way or another.

---------- Post added at 02:47 ---------- Previous post was at 02:37 ----------

Originally Posted by Carth

Mark Carney has claimed the Brexit vote has left households £900 worse off annually, describing the sum as "a lot of money."

He's just another Euro lover that needs to hide the fact he's pretty useless at his job.

Was it the Brexit vote that has increased oil prices?

Was it the Brexit vote that pushed the local councils into the desperate attempts to 'save' £millions every year on their budgets?

Was it the Brexit vote that has decimated the high streets, or caused the ongoing closures of many named companies?

Was it the Brexit vote that has held interest rates at low levels for years?

Was it the Brexit vote that encouraged the shenanigans of the bankers/traders - something we're still paying for?

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Mark Carney's predictions are as reliable as a 3 month ahead weather forecast. He has been consitently wrong post Brexit and continues in vein.

The reduction in growth to near zero in the first quarter of this year was dominated by a fall in the construction sector of ~6%, mainly due to the appaling weather and precious little to do with Brexit.

Originally Posted by papa smurf

Carney the Blarney at it again

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

Ah bless MrK found himself something to cheer him up hopefully he'll quit while he's ahead and go enjoy a drink in his garden. Carney is about as reliable as a north korean takeaway the guy has a lousy track record and hopefully when he goes we will get somebody a lot better. Even if it were true it's a price many of us are willing to pay to get out of the EU hell double and triple it still a bargain to be out of the EU and not long now till we are out.

Wow...he is the one in the wrong here?

I can just see it now:

The leave crowd: We're taking back control!

Carney: But we were the only member state to have monetary and currency control not being wed to the Euro

The leave crowd: Yeah but you couldn't be trusted with it so we had to wreck the entire economy some, just to be on the safe side! The economy may suffer but at least we'll never join the single currency!

Carney: How very Gordon Brown of you - but Cameron agreed to that in his negotiations anyway, we would never have to join the single currency! You rejected his re-negotiations anyway!

Years down the line (if we ever get out and want to rejoin):

EU: Now you must sign up to join the Euro

Nationalists: But we were never a part of the Euro to begin with!

Carney: See, now we have no independent monetary policy / currency of our own

Nationalists: Exactly, this is all your fault Mark!

This is like groundhog day....