Quote:
Originally Posted by Mick
Well there was fraudulent voters, these elections do have such things you know.
Last night's election is not indicative of how things will go in November. Yesterday, the Democrat candidate Lamb went in +6 point lead and barely won (pending challenges). As I already said, he had to run as a pro-2A, pro-life, anti-Pelosi Dem. Hardly representative of their party.
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The poll that him +6 was the most kind poll to him. On average he actually went in with a +2 lead:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...lamb-6327.html
But this was a comfortably Republican district. The last time there was an election the Democrats didn't even bother to run.
We don't know if the Democrat has actually won because the margin is so close that it won't be called. He is ahead but there will certainly be a recount.
However irrespective of which way this narrow margin falls losing to a Democrat in a heavily Republican district doesn't bode well for November even if the results don't replicate exactly.
If I were to bet I would say the Republicans will narrowly hang on as the map is advantageous to them, more Democrats are up for re-election than Republicans and the Dems are in competitive districts whereas the Republicans are in safe seats. Still in special elections, actual votes, there have been a large move away from the Republican.