Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456
The problem is that most studies are based on a proven model, i.e. what has happened elsewhere or previously in the same or similar situation.
There is no model to base a prediction on. It's never happened before anywhere.
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You are absolutely right, estimates have to be made on the relative costs and I think that is shown by the fairly wide spread of predictions. Ther are some that are known, for example MFN rates under the WTO for imports in to the EU that will have a big influence on our exports. Or the relative costs of importing goods from non-EU states under WTO rules that may need to be extended to EU imports.
You could argue however that the lack of precedent does illustrate what a leap in to the unknown this exercise really is.
Textbooks and Ph.D. theses will be written about these years in the future. We are living through history here.