Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx
It does beg the question why there haven't been full studies or peer reviewed papers having a pro-Brexit standpoint. I would have thought the combined cash of Tim Martin (worth around £200m) Lord Bamford (£3.1b!) and Jacob Rees-Mogg (£45m) would have paid nicely for a robust pro-Brexit paper somewhere
(I stand to be corrected if there's anything more substantial than a press release out there)
In the meantime, I will repost this link - https://benefitcostanalysis.org/site...1%20Brexit.pdf which shows the breadth of different sources all telling a similar story. Economics is in inexact science and I don't think anyone would disagree but if almost all reports lean in the same direction, it does seem like there's a trend towards a prediction of a negative impact.
Here's a summary on slide 10;
After that, we're just arguing about how big really. |
The problem is that most studies are based on a proven model, i.e. what has happened elsewhere or previously in the same or similar situation.
There is no model to base a prediction on. It's never happened before anywhere.