Some fascinating stuff from the editor of Leave HQ.
This is a thread from Twitter I'm reformatting.
Quote:
Hard brexiters tell me I am exaggerating about the impact of a no deal Brexit. Let me explain why I'm not.
We live in a "computer says no" world. If I go for a mortgage and a database says I'm no good, then that is the last word on it.
Trade systems work the same way. Either a transaction is legal and permitted - or it is not.
If the UK is wiped from the EU databases then we do not qualify for preferential trade measures. We don't exist.
UK is no longer part of the EU open skies agreement so landing slots are cancelled. Months of scheduling disrupted.
We are subject to all the rules applicable to a third country with no formal relations. - Like we just dropped out of the sky.
None of the systems pertaining to "frictionless trade" will have a UK entry in the databases.
We won't even have our own customs and regulatory regime. All of it is keyed to EU systems and institutions.
Testing labs and customs offices no longer recognised or authorised. The system simply stops working.
There are those who say this is not insurmountable but what do we do while we sort this all out?
Once you break a supply chain, EU business will look elsewhere for suppliers and they won't be back in a hurry. It functions on trust.
It will take us years just to design and roll out the replacement software and systems to function as a third country.
But supposing there are workarounds as Tories continue to assert. Ok, let's entertain that for a moment.
This is the same government that has taken 15 months to learn the difference between the single market and the customs union.
And they STILL can't get the basic definitions right. Our MPs don't have the first concept of how customs systems work.
You think they will cope? Even the people who are supposed to know have only half a clue.
Rebuilding the system will require all new facilities built from scratch. We are looking at years to establish the new normal.
Oh and let's not even get into obscure things like mutual recognition of driving licences and qualifications. What fun that will be!
In short, everything fails, all at once, in ways our government is incapable of adequately responding. Operation Enduring Clusterf***.
It would be bad news even if we had a Rolls Royce government. But we don't. We have David Davis - and he's the competent one!
But never you mind. That Rees-Mogg fellow will sort it all out. After all, he has a posh accent so he must be clever. True story!
Addendum - note that this is without even making mention of tariffs! And it's becoming depressingly inevitable.
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He followed it up with this. I remind people this guy is really not a 'remoaner' - he voted leave and wants the UK out of the EU.
Quote:
A halfway competent government would have signed off the outline of the Brexit financial settlement by now.
A credible government would not be playing silly buggers with the sequencing. This shouldn't even be an issue.
Given the gravity of these talks, there wouldn't be much dispute over citizens rights either. We want the same things.
Except that we are now nowhere with months on the clock. Davis is pecking over the accounts like a vulture, picking pointless arguments.
This is not statesmanship. This is accountancy.
Davis thinks its an audit, but this is political discussion over a new relationship.
Youd think with a £240bn trade relationship hanging in the balance that the so-called natural party of government would take it seriously
Unless Davis steps up the pace and starts cooperating then there is zero chance of completing a settlement in two years. ZERO.
I cannot see that the EU will be in any rush to extend if all they are getting from Davis is the run-around and political insults.
It really all depends on the EU's damage assessment and how fast they think they can recover.
Trade substitution means they can cope better than we can. It's then a matter of EU institutions adapting to reduced funding.
It's the same as about 20 EU small members pulling out. Fundamentally changes the EU and weakens it as a power.
The EU, though, will not be blackmailed, nor will it tolerate dithering. If Britain wants the full force, then so be it.
That's when all of Britain pays the price for Tory hostility and hubris. We are looking at a very serious recession.
That much is unavoidable when you throw away all of your JIT supply lines and food exports.
And then we will see first hand just how completely inept UK governance has become. Surprise at the consequences will be very telling.
Our equally abysmal response to them will be equally instructive. An administration totally out of its depth. Won't know what hit it.
We are then in the position of begging fore a restoration of trade instruments with the EU. It won't be pretty
That won't be fast and it will not be cheap. There will be a financial and political price.
Repairing the damage to EU institutions will cost - and we will foot the bill. EU will seek reparations if we want trade.
More will be the political cost. A major international humiliation. "Global Britain" will be a damp squib. A stillborn.
Then we end up with a Corbyn government making everything manifestly worse. You'll deserve it though. This is what you wanted.
"We can get a better deal than Norway" you said. I will enjoy reminding you. Will give us something to chat about in the dole office. 
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There is no fundamental objection to leaving the European Union here as long as it's done the right way. What's going on right now isn't even close.
The Icelandic foreign minister just today said that the UK would be welcome in EFTA. It would benefit them and benefit us, we would have immediate trade deals as part of EFTA and be able to negotiate more.
What we're doing right now isn't taking back control or asserting sovereignty, it's talking about copy/pasting European Union trade schedules, trade deals, and allowing ministers with no Parliamentary input to produce thousands of statutory instruments. Given I thought this was about democracy the idea of handing all that to the executive doesn't really appeal!