Going by the negotiations this week this isn't going well at all.
The EU want cash, the UK want to pay as little as legally possible knowing that future obligations after exit probably aren't legally enforceable as the treaties in question would be extinguished upon exit.
The UK doesn't want to pay a penny for anything after exit date, including programmes we've committed to fund while in the EU such as research, 3rd country development, etc. There is probably no legal means for the EU to compel payment.
The UK seems to fundamentally misunderstand the Single Market.
Somewhat bizarre given two Conservative politicians, Thatcher and Lord Cockfield, are architects of it.
The UK, having accepted sequential talks, now wants future relationship and current settlement talks simultaneously.
The EU will not move from the negotiating platform it set down earlier. Perhaps more to the point it cannot without approval from the Council of Ministers and the European Parliament.
I doubt we'll crash out early, we'll likely drag it all out for as long as possible to give business more time to prepare, but as of right now the differences seem intractable and it's incredibly unlikely that the UK will have any transition or exit deal in place, we will move to WTO MFN status which carries many issues and challenges with regards to replicating many basic arrangements we have in place now, before even contemplating trade deals.
Hey ho.
---------- Post added at 15:45 ---------- Previous post was at 15:33 ----------
This may well be accurate.
For all the rhetoric it's the cold hard truth and the numbers don't lie. In case of a disorganised exit they hurt, we hurt more. I
'm fairly sure a certain Mr Varoufakis wasn't held in especially high regard in places, and isn't in Greece which perhaps explains why he's always on tour.
That said I've not a clue where else things can go. Months ago Donald Tusk was quite open about it and they haven't budged since. We've 3 options by the looks:
1) Forget Brexit (politically unworkable).
2) Join EEA/EFTA (probably politically unworkable).
3) WTO MFN status, no exit agreement (economically horrendous).
Hope there's some secret sauce my Brexit watching has missed. Even at my most 'Brexity' I was very clear I wanted the UK in the EEA and EFTA and to that I still hold, but politics has changed and left boring centrist types like me behind.