Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
On the contrary, this comes from Prof John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, not a commercial polling organisation with a reputation to defend. It was his exit poll that correctly called the 2015 general election in the face of disbelief from every other pundit lined up on every election night special, and every opinion poll conducted prior to the election.
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He is also the head of the British Polling Council to which those polling organisations belong.
Exit polls are more reliable as they don't have to filter for likely voters, they're asking for how someone voted rather than how they will vote and they can narrow it down to constituency level rather than national vote share (which the exit poll doesn't do). The point behind don't be too harsh on the commercial pollsters because of the Exit poll.